Carol Shea-Porter for US Congress

Polls: GOP Lags in House Races

Polls: GOP Lags in House Races
(Roll Call, October 7, 2008)

by Josh Kurtz

Democrats have opened up significant leads in seven marquee House races that are rematches of 2006 contests, according to new polls conducted exclusively for Roll Call.

Whether the race involves a Republican who was ousted last cycle and is seeking a political comeback, a shaky GOP incumbent who might be in even greater jeopardy this time, or a Democrat who won an open-seat race in a conservative district, Democrats everywhere seem to be benefiting politically from the recent wave of bad economic news. Democratic Congressional contenders are even leading in districts where Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) trails Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) in the Roll Call survey.

There are at least 14 competitive House races this fall that are reruns of previous contests — either from a special election this year, in 2006 or in an earlier cycle. Roll Call surveyed seven of the races where there has been little or no public polling released.

SurveyUSA, an automated polling firm, conducted the surveys for Roll Call on Saturday and Sunday (WHAS-TV in Louisville was a partner on the poll in Indiana’s 9th district). Each poll tested more than 600 voters and had an error margin of roughly 4 points (for complete details, see chart at right).

In Illinois’ 10th district, marketing consultant Dan Seals (D) led Rep. Mark Kirk (R) 52 percent to 44 percent. In Indiana’s 9th, Rep. Baron Hill (D) led ex-Rep. Mike Sodrel (R) 53 percent to 38 percent. In New Hampshire’s 1st, Rep. Carol Shea-Porter (D) led ex-Rep. Jeb Bradley (R) 50 percent to 41 percent. In New York’s 29th, retired Navy officer Eric Massa (D) led Rep. Randy Kuhl (R) 51 percent to 44 percent. In North Carolina’s 8th district, teacher Larry Kissell (D) led Rep. Robin Hayes (R) 49 percent to 41 percent. In Pennsylvania’s 4th district, Rep. Jason Altmire (D) led ex-Rep. Melissa Hart (R) 54 percent to 42 percent. And in Wisconsin’s 8th district, Rep. Steve Kagen (D) topped former state Speaker John Gard (R) 54 percent to 43 percent.

New Hampshire’s 1st

Aided by a grass-roots army, Shea-Porter pulled upsets in both the Democratic primary and the general election in 2006. It was a record-setting year for New Hampshire Democrats up and down the ballot, and Shea-Porter was the clear beneficiary.

Until the nation’s economic crisis leapt to the forefront a few weeks ago, New Hampshire seemed up for grabs politically this fall, and Shea-Porter was believed to be in trouble. But in a district that Bush won by 3 points in 2004, Obama is now leading by 7 points, according to SurveyUSA. That has helped stabilize Shea-Porter, who toppled Bradley by 2 points two years ago despite being outspent more than 3-1.

Bush’s approval rating in the district was a dismal 25 percent; only 15 percent of those surveyed approved of Congress’ job performance.

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