Carol Shea-Porter for US Congress

Polls tighten in New Hampshire

'Monitor' survey shows Dems remain in lead

(Concord Monitor, Sept.26)

Democrats hold leads in all of New Hampshire's major political races, a new Monitor poll shows, but several contests remain tight and multiple results fall inside the margin of error. In almost every race, the poll shows women breaking for Democratic candidates and providing them with their leads.

In the presidential race, Democratic Sen. Barack Obama leads Republican Sen. John McCain, 48 to 44 percent, according to the poll of 600 likely voters conducted by Research 2000 from Sept. 22 to Sept. 24. The poll, which has a 4-point margin of error, adds to a growing picture of a neck-and-neck race in the state: Of seven New Hampshire polls released this week, McCain has the edge in two and Obama in five.

Pollster Del Ali said he didn't see any evidence of a boost for McCain among women from his selection of Sarah Palin, the Alaska governor, as a vice presidential nominee. The poll had women choosing Obama over McCain 52 to 39 percent, while men picked McCain over Obama 49 to 44 percent.

"If there was a bounce among women, we sure didn't pick it up," Ali said. "The only thing she's done is energize the Republican base. But in terms of energizing women, all she's done is energize them to vote Democrat."

University of New Hampshire pollster Andy Smith framed the gender gap he saw in his poll the opposite way. "We're seeing the gender gap stronger among men in favor of Republicans," he said.

The UNH poll released this week showed Republicans polling a few points higher in every race. Smith saw a couple of potential reasons for that: The UNH poll dates included a weekend, which Smith said can be a better time to reach GOP voters. Also, the UNH poll was conducted entirely last week, from Sept. 14 to Sept. 21, largely before the proposed $700 federal bailout of Wall Street dominated the news. National polls have shown that voters tend to favor Democrats on the economy.

In the state's Senate race, Democrat Jeanne Shaheen leads Republican Sen. John Sununu, 50 to 41, with 2 percent choosing Libertarian Ken Blevens and 7 percent undecided. Shaheen, a former governor from Madbury, has led in polls for more than a year, though several polls showed her margin shrinking over the summer. The last time the Monitor polled the race, in July 2007, Shaheen led Sununu 56 to 34.

The Monitor poll has women granting Shaheen her entire margin. Men split evenly between Sununu and Shaheen, 46-46, but women break for Shaheen, 54 to 36 percent.

Ali sees a silver lining for Republicans in the 1st Congressional District, but the news there for the GOP isn't as good as it once was. The poll had incumbent Rep. Carol Shea-Porter edging former representative Jeb Bradley by a single point, 44 to 43 percent. That is well within the poll's margin of error of the congressional race surveys, which had a sample of 300 likely voters, of 6 percent.

The UNH poll released this week found Bradley, of Wolfeboro, in the lead, with a margin of 45 to 42 percent. That poll has shown Bradley's margin halved from six points to three since July. Back then, UNH had Bradley leading 46 to 40 over Shea-Porter, a former social worker from Rochester who beat Bradley to win the seat in 2006.

The key to Bradley's lost ground may be in the UNH poll's favorability numbers, which show voters overall opinion of Bradley sharply down since July. Back then, the difference between those who saw Bradley favorably and saw him unfavorably, his so-called "net favorability," was 21 percent. This time - after Bradley's lived through a tough primary in which he traded barbs and negative ads with rival John Stephen - the UNH poll shows him with a gap cut in a third, down to 7 percent.

In the 2nd Congressional District, Democratic Rep. Paul Hodes is handily in the lead over political newcomer Jennifer Horn, with a margin of 47 to 34 percent. Horn, a former radio host from Nashua, polled better among men than among women, pulling in 38 percent of men and 30 percent of women. Conversely, Hodes, a lawyer from Concord, fares best among women, garnering 50 percent of the women surveyed and 44 percent of the men.

The UNH poll, which featured more open-ended questions, showed Hodes leading Horn 38 to 26 percent, with a full third of voters undecided. In both polls, Hodes falls short of the key benchmark for a safe incumbent: the 50-percent mark.

Ali said he didn't think Hodes could take a vacation, but the numbers look good for the first-term congressman. "I think the fact that he's up double digits is probably a good sign for him," Ali said. "He's in a much better position than Shea-Porter."

In the gubernatorial race, Democratic incumbent John Lynch holds a wide, 26-point lead over Republican state Sen. Joe Kenney, with a margin of 58 to 32 percent. That's a large lead by any standard, but it's relatively small for Lynch, who won re-election in 2006 with 74 percent of the vote.

"Oh man, if those are weak numbers!" Ali said. "I can tell you of incumbents who would kill for numbers like that."

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